') 南京地区中暑天气条件指数研究预报 -



发布时间:2022-04-27 00:26:59 所属栏目:南京天气 阅读:

摘要 本文采用南京地区 1988— 1997年每年夏季逐日各项气象要素及全市各医院同期重症中暑人数进行统计筛选出热夏年 :1988年、1994年、1995年 ,对这三年中暑期重症中暑病例资料与气象资料进行相关统计分析 ,找出相关性较好的气象因子 ,经过方程化筛选 ,得出气温、湿度、气压、对中暑影响较大。三日滑动平均值为主要预报因子。设计中暑指数数学模式。根据中暑病病理、程度将中暑天气条件分三个等级 ,给出三个不同的中暑天气条件指数临界值 ,经过 1998年 ,1999年试报验证 ,准确率较高 ,社会效益较好。该指数预报模式基本可行。 In this paper,by using statistics of the relation between the daily weather elements and the same time cases of severe heat illness in each hospital of this city,1998、1994、1995 were selected to be the three hot summer years.Based on the correlated statistics analysis,some better meteorological factors were found.After optimal equation was selected,it showed that temperature,relative moisture and pressure exerted a great influence on heat illness and the application of two days average value was suggested.The heat illness index was designed.According to the pathological level,the weather condition which leads to illness was divided into two classes,and two critical values of different weather condition indexes were given.The result showed that this model can be used to operation prediction for its high accuracy and better society benefit through the test prediction in 1998 and 1999.